Forum Betfair forum

At a very granular level, the following scenario (or equivalent) is unfolding. - Lay one unit of stake at decimal odds β (liability β − 1). - Let α be SP - Let Y = 1 if the selection wins, 0 otherwise. The back that greens the book is β/α. Both outcomes then pay the same amount: g = 1 − β/α {g: 'Green-At-SP'} Let-It-Ride, same opening lay, held to settlement: r = 1 − βY {r: 'Let-It-Ride'} which is +1 if the selection loses and −(β − 1) if it wins. Subtracting gives the residual: r − g = β(1/α − Y) The right-hand side is exactly the settlement of a fresh lay of stake β/α struck at SP. So, on every race, Let-It-Ride = Green-At-SP + (Lay-At-SP held to the result) All divergence between the bots lives in that residual (lay at SP, held to the result).

6 favourites have been beaten in a row Latest: favourite Just Typical (4.10) was beaten in the 20:30 Newcastle — winner Whiskey Pete (15.5)

3 straight winners from the low third of the draw at Newcastle Latest: Kody B (10.5) in the 19:30 — 7f Hcap

Back again for 2026 renewal on Sunday, seems to be a strong favourite in Daryz (last years winner off 12/1 ISP) early estimates seem to be around a 7/4 shot. Hasn't lost since in paris the win last year, slight blip when 3rd @ Ascot this yr off 2/1 but got a win since then so excited to see the market Not expecting much from the Saturday card but may be worth a peep as there's Grp 1 racing on

BF so slow at re-opening after a close finish that the slow mo has been and gone and everyone knows who's likely won Yes, very frustrating! If Betfair are only interested in maximising traded volume, then they should just automatically suspend and immediately reopen every single horse race as they cross the line. There's always high volumes wanting to trade at the end of the race to manage positions, bet on possible stewards enquiries, and occasional close finishes etc.

BF so slow at re-opening after a close finish that the slow mo has been and gone and everyone knows who's likely won

Mae Amor traded 1.05 in running and lost — 19:00 Newcastle T. Kiely-Marshall · Rebecca Menzies Went off 16.5 · Angel Love won at 9.80 6f Hcap

few players up at least 4 figs in their automation today, sadly i wasnt one of them who can guess the mistakes which fired into the mkt today?

nothing obvious i can determine, i'll go with spurious correlation for now as you still have periods where it's not correlated. if there was some sort of fast player spiking price at off then you would imagine BSP would be significantly lower on those dogs which you layed that actually won, however as you're taking a profit on lay bet to back bet BSP it suggests drifters are often winning ive got a lot of 1,000 mkt live samples of gh mkts and it's not enough to draw much of a concrete conclusion about anything. on another note takesp is just gonna make P&L worse as anywhere you force a bet into the mkt just for the sake of reducing liabilities and the more size you're just making your price worse. of course when you're playing for tiny amounts hedging is possible without giving too much profit back using BSP but you'd likely be better off to take the variance on the chin and have higher underlying +EV on every market, scale up bet size over time. there's only so many pounds you can put through those markets anyway so the max drawdown should be absorbable for you (if not just limit stakes as needed until you can afford to up it)

Robert Havlin has won 2 in a row at Newcastle Latest: Bill The Bull (12.3) in the 18:00 — 5f Nursery No ride in the next race (18:30)

Thank you Dallas, This one did the job perfectly! I did play around with the parameters and finally get to the point - what I want. Thanks again

Saint Of Seville heavily drifted — 17:30 Newcastle Robert Havlin · John & Thady Gosden Traded 1.72 → 2.34 17:30 Newcastle · 1m Mdn Stks